Blecker, Robert (Dept. of Economics)

Davidson on Keynes: the open economy dimension
Working Paper No. 2008-06. 32 pages., This article reviews the treatment of open economy issues in Paul Davidson’s book, John Maynard Keynes (2007). Davidson aptly summarizes Keynes’s criticism of the international monetary system for the asymmetric “burden of adjustment” it places on deficit countries compared with surplus countries, which imparts a contractionary bias to the world economy. Davidson also updates Keynes’s proposals for global monetary reform and extends his analysis of international trade. However, Davidson’s arguments about mainstream views of international finance and the ineffectiveness of exchange rate adjustments are on less solid ground. This article suggests reformulations of Davidson’s interpretations on the latter two points., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-20T21:37:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2008-06.pdf: 197266 bytes, checksum: d0c6634b023355c2a95e0242231f4200 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-20T21:37:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2008-06.pdf: 197266 bytes, checksum: d0c6634b023355c2a95e0242231f4200 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-07, Department of Economics, American University
Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?
Working paper No. 2006-06. 46 pages., This paper tests for a ‘fallacy of composition’ by analysing the demand for exports of the 18 developing countries that are most specialised in manufactures in the markets of the 10 largest industrial countries. Estimated export equations (both time-series and panel data) suggest that most developing countries compete with other developing country exporters rather than with industrialised country producers. A smaller number of countries that export more high-technology products compete with industrialised country producers and also have higher expenditure elasticities for their exports. Thus, the fallacy of composition applies mainly to the larger group of countries exporting mostly low-technology products., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-18T22:03:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-06.pdf: 310181 bytes, checksum: c73a0bddaf99f1cb933026a25ac0fae7 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-18T22:03:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-06.pdf: 310181 bytes, checksum: c73a0bddaf99f1cb933026a25ac0fae7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-04, Department of Economics, American University
The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for U.S. Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis
Working Paper No. 2006-07 revised. 46 pages., This paper analyzes the effects of the real value of the dollar on investment in US domestic manufacturing using aggregate data for 1973-2004. Econometric estimation shows a negative effect that is much larger than has been found in any previous study. The exchange rate affects investment mainly, although not exclusively, through the channel of financial or liquidity constraints, rather than by affecting the desired stock of capital. Counterfactual simulations show that US manufacturing investment would have been 61% higher and the capital stock would have been 17% higher in 2004 if the dollar had not appreciated after 1995., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-18T22:07:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-07.pdf: 477375 bytes, checksum: 8a2924c3bad69279d9966f5ce2979c38 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-18T22:07:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-07.pdf: 477375 bytes, checksum: 8a2924c3bad69279d9966f5ce2979c38 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-08, Department of Economics, American University
External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico 1979–2007
Working Paper No. 2008-04. 34 pages., This paper finds that shocks to net financial inflows, world oil prices, the U.S. growth rate, and the lagged real exchange rate explain most of the fluctuations in Mexico’s annual growth since 1979. The paper also estimates how the effects of these external constraints have changed since Mexico’s liberalization policies of the late 1980s and the formation of NAFTA in 1994. Estimates of an investment function and other tests show that growth drives investment but not conversely, in the short run. Investment is driven mainly by oil prices and the accelerator effect; foreign direct investment has no significant impact., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-20T21:30:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2008-04.pdf: 368612 bytes, checksum: 46904c4b8fd7e6640abc9fcf4d9f9090 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-20T21:30:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2008-04.pdf: 368612 bytes, checksum: 46904c4b8fd7e6640abc9fcf4d9f9090 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-09
The Fallacy of Composition and Contractionary Devaluations: The Output Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks in Developing Countries that Export Manufactures
Working Paper No. 2007-02. 45 pages., This paper studies whether intra-developing country price competition has significant effects on the short-run growth of output in developing countries that are specialized in manufactured exports. Regression estimates using the generalized method of moments (GMM) applied to annual panel data for 17 developing countries in 1983-2004 show that these countries exhibit a ‘fallacy of composition’, in the sense that a real depreciation relative to competing developing country exporters increases the home country’s growth rate in the short run. The results also suggest that real depreciations for these developing countries relative to the industrialised countries are contractionary., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-20T13:34:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2007-02.pdf: 563309 bytes, checksum: b6a457aaeadc23182f9a6fe8fc4c8722 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-20T13:34:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2007-02.pdf: 563309 bytes, checksum: b6a457aaeadc23182f9a6fe8fc4c8722 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-01, Department of Economics, American University
Integración, productividad e inclusión en México
Published in: Foxley, Alejandro; Stallings, Barbara (eds.). Economías latinoamericanas. Cómo avanzar más allá del ingreso medio. Santiago, Chile: Cieplan, 2014.
Macroeconomic and Structural Constraints on Export-Led Growth in Mexico
Working Paper No. 2006-05. 57 pages., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-18T21:59:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-05.pdf: 233504 bytes, checksum: b54c8ea3c21c949e52e2a0b836cfb1a9 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-18T21:59:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-05.pdf: 233504 bytes, checksum: b54c8ea3c21c949e52e2a0b836cfb1a9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-03, Department of Economics, American University
Unpublished Statistical Appendix to: Price Competition and the Fallacy of Composition in Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Estimates of Short-Run Growth Effects
Working Paper No. 2006-11 appendix. Eight pages., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-19T13:55:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-11-appendix.pdf: 90074 bytes, checksum: 5bd54de44a1869422a946c84e23e4c19 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-19T13:55:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2006-11-appendix.pdf: 90074 bytes, checksum: 5bd54de44a1869422a946c84e23e4c19 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-08, Department of Economics, American University
Would a North American monetary union protect Canada and Mexico against the ravages of “Dutch disease”?
Working Paper No. 2008-07. 42 pages. Forthcoming in: Gerald Epstein, Thomas Schlesinger, and Matías Vernengo, editors, The Political Economy of Monetary Policy and Financial Regulation: Essays in Honor of Jane D’Arista, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2009., After the formation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, enthusiasts of regional integration in North America turned their attention to “deeper” forms of integration, especially a customs union or monetary union.1 Interest in proposals for deeper integration peaked around the turn of the new millennium, both north of the 49th parallel and south of the Rio Grande (Río Bravo). Although the unilateralist turn of US foreign policy under President George W. Bush since 2001 has lessened enthusiasm for deeper integration with the US in both Canada and Mexico, these sorts of proposals remain “in the air” and could easily be revived by future North American governments., Submitted by Chris Lewis (clewis@american.edu) on 2009-02-20T21:41:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2008-07.pdf: 249046 bytes, checksum: 68f3b20e03a544f8faa8c7cd86986039 (MD5), Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-20T21:41:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2008-07.pdf: 249046 bytes, checksum: 68f3b20e03a544f8faa8c7cd86986039 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-07, Department of Economics, American University